Global insured losses from natural catastrophes reached an estimated USD 42 billion in the first half of 2026, well below the long-term trend, a recent Swiss Re Institute report reads.

The Venezuelan earthquake sequence caused the most economic damage, but the low insurance penetration means the share of insured losses is likely to be low. Severe convective storm losses remained moderate despite elevated activity and no major peak-loss event occurred. Insurance covered an estimated 42% of total economic losses, well above the long-term average.

As the world's fastest-warming continent, Europe now experiences 64% more hot days than in the 1950s. This year's record-breaking heat and dry conditions appear to have contributed to an earlier start to the wildfire seasons in parts of Europe.

Although a strengthening El Niño may temper North Atlantic hurricane activity in the second half of the year, the risk of a costly major event remains. The long-term upward trend in insured losses is intact, driven by growing exposure, rising asset values, and changing hazard patterns.

Swiss Re Institute’s preliminary estimates put global insured natural catastrophe losses at USD 42 billion in the first half of 2026. The total was the lowest first-half outcome since 2020 and below the trend estimate of USD 66 billion. Severe convective storms (SCS), mainly in the US, were the main driver of losses, followed by winter storms in the US and Europe.

Insurance covered about 42% of the USD 100 billion in economic losses from natural catastrophes in the first half of 2026. This was above the 30-year average of 33%, as much of the damage occurred in the US and other highly insured markets. Losses were also concentrated in perils that are widely covered under personal property insurance (SCS and winter storms).

The most destructive natural catastrophe of the first half of 2026 was the Venezuela earthquake sequence of 24 June. More than 5 000 people lost their lives, while damage to buildings and infrastructure is estimated at around USD 20 billion,making it the costliest event of the year in terms of economic losses, and Latin America's costliest natural catastrophe since the 2010 Chile earthquake (USD 46 billion, inflation adjusted). No reliable estimate of insured losses is currently available. However, given Venezuela's low insurance penetration, insured losses will likely represent only a small share of the losses, underscoring the region's persistent protection gap.

The earthquake sequence, the country's strongest since 1900, consisted of a Mw7.2 foreshock followed less than a minute later by a Mw7.5 mainshock. Such earthquake doublets are rare but can amplify damage. Buildings weakened by the first shock were subjected to a second episode of intense ground shaking before emergency response could begin. The most severe damage occurred across the Caracas metropolitan area and adjacent coastal communities, particularly in La Guaira, where nearly 17% of the state's capital stock was damaged or destroyed.Significant damage was also reported in Miranda, Aragua and Carabobo.

Wildfire risk rises as Europe heats up

Following above-average winter rainfall that boosted vegetation growth, prolonged heat and dry conditions created favorable conditions for wildfires across western and southern Europe. Strong winds further increased the risk, with major fires affecting southwest France and the Madrid region in July.

Insured losses largely depend on whether fires reach densely populated or high-value areas. While Europe generally lacks the combination of extreme wildfire hazard and high insured values seen in California, significant protection gaps remain, particularly in southern Europe. Extensive wildland–urban interface areas also mean that fires near major settlements could still cause substantial losses.

Europe’s wildfire risk remains moderate but rising temperatures are increasing the frequency of fire-prone conditions. Stronger prevention, land management, resilient construction and emergency response will therefore be essential to limiting future losses.

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A quiet first half is not necessarily indicative of below-average annual losses, as the first and second halves of the year are driven by different perils. First-half insured losses are typically dominated by US severe convective storms, while the second half is largely determined by the North Atlantic hurricane season, which peaks in early September. The outlook for the second half of 2026 is shaped by predictions of a strengthening El Niño, which is expected to suppress tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic for the remainder of the season.

As such, Swiss Re Institute estimates that these structural drivers could contribute to long-term insured loss growth of around 5–7% annually, even though annual insured losses will continue to fluctuate significantly from one year to the next.

Read more details here.