According to the agency, the affirmation and positive outlook reflect its view that PZU has sufficient flexibility to navigate the materially increased capital requirements expected under the updated Solvency II framework from early 2027. It also reflects the agency’s uncertainty around how alternative capital optimization measures may affect the group's medium-to-long-term ability and willingness to keep passing the hypothetical sovereign stress test--a key factor that supports the rating on PZU being rated above the foreign-currency sovereign rating on Poland (A-/Stable/A-2).
Over the past year, PZU has also strengthened its regulatory solvency capital buffers, which increased to 239% at the end of 2025 from 226% at end-2024 (based on the standard formula, no transitional adjustment). At year-end 2025, the group capital adequacy had a sizable capital buffer above the insurance capital model at the 99.99% confidence threshold. The group continued to show solid earnings generation in first quarter 2026, when it reported an operating profit of Polish zloty (PLN) 1.36 billion (about EUR 320 million). This operating profit underpins steady capital generation, even as the group declared moderate dividends for the fiscal year 2025 (ending Dec. 31, 2025). In the agency’s view, sustained and resilient earning generation through 2026 and in 2027 would facilitate strong ongoing capital generation, providing greater flexibility regarding the extent of implementation of other alternative capital optimization measures.
The rating agency noted that the positive outlook reflects its view that the group will successfully adapt to the upcoming Solvency II update due for January 2027 and will continue to withstand potential sovereign stress as defined under the hypothetical scenario. Additionally, the agency anticipates that PZU's insurance and banking operations will continue to generate strong and resilient earnings.
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