The first half of 2026 saw estimated insured natural catastrophe losses of USD 42 billion, 16% below the 10-year average. Insured losses from severe convective storms were also below trend, with the biggest outbreaks largely sparing the most exposed regions in the US, a recent study of Swiss Re Institute says.

At the same time, June's record heat and persistent dry conditions set the stage for an active wildfire season in Europe and other parts of the world.

As the world's fastest-warming continent, Europe now experiences 64% more hot days, defined as days when the daily maximum temperature reaches 30°C or more, than in the 1950s. June's record heat in western Europe, together with persistent dry conditions, also created an environment more conducive to wildfires across western and southern Europe, where major fires affected France and Spain in July.

Wildfire risk has so far accounted for only a relatively small share of insured losses in Europe. Yet it is the fastest-growing weather peril globally. Insured wildfire losses in Europe have increased by an estimated 8–11% per year in real terms since 1970, Swiss Re Institute's research shows.

The early start to Europe's wildfire season illustrates how hazards are changing. Fire seasons are becoming longer, while conditions conducive to wildfires are becoming more frequent and affecting regions historically less exposed.

The key study findings:

• Global insured natural catastrophe losses in first half of 2026 estimated at USD 42 billion, lowest first-half total since 2020
• Severe convective storms remained the biggest insured-loss driver at an estimated USD 28 billion, below long-term trend
• June's record heat and persistent dry conditions set the stage for an active European wildfire season.

"A less costly first half of the year does not mean the risk has gone away. One major hurricane, earthquake or wildfire can quickly change the picture. Europe's recent wildfires highlight how hotter and drier conditions are making large wildfires more likely and, with more homes, businesses and infrastructure built in risk-exposed areas, also more costly", commented Balz Grollimund, Head Catastrophe Perils at Swiss Re.

Full study can be found here.